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My 2021 Portfolio
Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.
Company
Ticker
Entry Price
Exposure
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF
ARKG
$93.26
6.60%
CrowdStrike
CRWD
$211.82
11.78%
Disney
DIS
$181.18
10.53%
Enphase Energy
ENPH
$175.47
7.98%
Evolution Gaming Group
EVVTY
$101.02
12.77%
Facebook
FB
$273.16
11.05%
Redfin
RDFN
$68.63
10.41%
Teladoc
TDOC
$199.96
9.60%
Sea Ltd
SE
$199.05
14.09%
Waste Connections
WCN
$102.57
5.19%
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.
Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.
Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
“Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.
Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.
Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.
Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.
Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.
Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.
Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.
Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.
Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.
Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.
Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.
Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.
Please welcome the Golden Nugget to the stock market starting tomorrow!
The meeting of shareholders of the SPAC Landcadia Holding Company II just ended with the APPROVAL of a merger with GOLDEN NUGGET ONLINE GAMING. As of tomorrow it will be trading under the ticker G/N/O/G! Golden Nugget is the leader in online casino gaming in New Jersey and is launching in Michigan in the next week or so. Additionally it will be launching in PA, WV, and IL soon! Basically the meme-iest of all meme stocks Golden Nugget is a one way ticket to tendie town! Get on it. TLDR Buy L/C/A today or G/N/O/G any day after tomorrow to get in on some sweet iGaming tendies 🚀🚀🚀
West Virginia Online Casino Finally Goes Live As DraftKings Launches
“With a surprise launch, West Virginia has just become the fourth US state with legal online casino gambling alongside New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. DraftKings was the first operator to go live with a WV online casino, announcing its app is now available for both iOS and Android devices in the state. News came in the form of a brief press release issued Wednesday afternoon. DraftKings Casino is also available as a standalone app in PA and NJ, as well as embedded into the DraftKings Sportsbook platform in all three states. Michigan online casinos will additionally go live either later this year or early in 2021, where DraftKings has a path to market under a tribal partnership.” https://www.onlinepokerreport.com/43397/west-virginia-online-casino-live-with-draftkings/
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
Loop Insights Expands Venue Bubble Platform To Launch First “Film Bubble” For Major Motion Picture, In Partnership With Draganfly “Safe Set” Solutions, Production Set For January 2021
RACMF (ASK @ 1.83) DFLYF (ASK @ 0.346) DFLY.CN (ASK @ 0.44) MTRX.VN (ASK @ 2.25) Film Bubble Provides Another Major Opportunity As Spin-Off Of Successional NCAA Venue Bubble and Travel Bubble Projects VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Dec. 14, 2020, a provider of contactless solutions and artificial intelligence ("AI") to drive real-time insights, enhanced customer engagement, and automated venue tracing to the brick and mortar space, is pleased to announce the successful launch of its first “Film Bubble” for a major motion picture (“MMP1”) that is scheduled to commence filming in January 2021. The name of the film and the starring actors will remain confidential until the commencement of filming. The launch of the Film Bubble for MMP1 is the result of a partnership agreement with Draganfly Inc (DFLY:CSE). Draganfly’s Safe Set Solutions for the global film and TV production industry is a ground-based technology that uses symptom pre-screening, elevated body temperature measurement, and social distancing digital display to help ensure that everybody on the set is safe. Loop Insights CEO Rob Anson stated, “The addition of Dragonfly’s Safe Set Solutions to our Venue Bubble Platform creates an instant and powerful Film Bubble solution for an industry that has suffered catastrophic losses in 2020 and can’t afford to stay shut down for a minute longer. We are extremely proud to have jointly delivered a solution to the film industry that will allow them to safely get their crews, actors, and supporting infrastructure back to work and generating prosperity, the ripple effects of which reverberate around the world.” Draganfly CEO Cameron Chell stated, “Partnering with Loop Insights to combine our respective technologies into Loop’s Venue Bubble solution is a powerful and significant step to help all industries and most immediately Hollywood and the global film industry safely ramp up production. Film industry investors, insurance companies, unions, and guilds are all seeking this type of solution to keep workers safe and protect their investments.” FILM AND TV STUDIOS SEEK FAST AND RELIABLE TESTING SOLUTIONS TO RESUME SAFE OPERATIONS AND MITIGATE BILLIONS IN LOSSES Total earnings at the North American box office in 2019 amounted to $USD 11.32 billion according to Statista.com. In January 2020, the U.S. motion picture and sound recording industry employed over 456 thousand people, with several hundred thousand more in Canada, the U.K., and around the world. As a result of production closures and cinema shutdowns related to COVID-19, the majority of the industry's revenues and jobs have been temporarily lost and are now at significant risk of long-term damage if the industry is unable to find solutions that can provide for the safe resumption of operations. Specifically, the global entertainment industry is projected to lose a staggering $160 billion of growth over the next five years, according to research firm Ampere Analysis. On November 2nd, AMC Theatres announced a 91% drop in revenues during the most recent earnings period, with losses hitting $906 million in just this quarter. LOOP AND DRAGANFLY FILM BUBBLE POSITIONED TO DELIVER INDUSTRY-LEADING SOLUTION Over the past several months, Loop Insights has successfully created, launched, and executed its Venue Bubble solution. Specifically, on December 1st, Loop announced Achieving 100% Success in Delivering The First-Ever Fully Integrated “Venue Bubble” in Live Environments at NCAA College Basketball Tournaments. In that press release, Loop CEO Rob Anson stated: “With the whole world watching, including professional sports leagues and teams, college sports leagues and teams, world-renown venues and hospitality companies, Loop hit it out of the park and provided the world with the empirical data necessary to demonstrate our bubble solution is nothing short of world-class.” Draganfly’s Vital Intelligence technology utilizes regular cameras to read vital signs such as Heart Rate, Respiratory Rate, and Sp02. The technology can help screen for infectious conditions, including COVID-19. The technology has been deployed on Drones and in Kiosks, along with an initial mobile API that has been implemented with several pilot customers. Loop CEO Rob Anson added, “The film industry has been an obvious major opportunity for our Venue Bubble solution and this first Film Bubble will provide a great showcase for our film industry solution, as well as, additional opportunities for travel, venue, and various healthcare applications we have been working on.” This Press Release Is Available On The Loop Insights Verified Forum On AGORACOM For Shareholder Discussion And Management Engagement https://agoracom.com/iLoopInsights/forums/discussion About Draganfly Draganfly Inc. (CSE: DFLY; OTCQB: DFLYF; FSE: 3U8) is the creator of quality, cutting-edge and software and systems that revolutionize the way organizations can do business and service their stakeholders. Recognized as being at the forefront of technology for over 22 years, Draganfly is an award-winning, industry-leading manufacturer and technology developer serving the public safety, agriculture, industrial inspections, security, and mapping and surveying markets. Draganfly is a company driven by passion, ingenuity, and the need to provide efficient solutions and first-class services to its customers around the world with the goal of saving time, money, and lives. About Loop Insights Loop Insights Inc. is a Vancouver-based Internet of Things (“IoT”) technology company that delivers transformative artificial intelligence (“AI”) automated marketing, contact tracing, and contactless solutions to the brick and mortar space. Its unique IoT device, Fobi, enables data connectivity across online and on-premise platforms to provide real-time, detailed insights and automated, personalized engagement. Its ability to integrate seamlessly into existing infrastructure, and customize campaigns according to each vertical, creates a highly scalable solution for its prospective global clients that span industries. Loop Insights operates in the telecom, casino gaming, sports and entertainment, hospitality, and retail industries, in Canada, the US, the UK, Latin America, Australia, Japan, and Indonesia. Loop’s products and services are backed by Amazon’s Partner Network. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/loop-insights-expands-venue-bubble-110000376.html
Loop Insights Expands Venue Bubble Platform To Launch First “Film Bubble” For Major Motion Picture, In Partnership With Draganfly “Safe Set” Solutions, Production Set For January 2021
RACMF (ASK @ 1.83) DFLYF (ASK @ 0.346) Film Bubble Provides Another Major Opportunity As Spin-Off Of Successional NCAA Venue Bubble and Travel Bubble Projects VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Dec. 14, 2020, a provider of contactless solutions and artificial intelligence ("AI") to drive real-time insights, enhanced customer engagement, and automated venue tracing to the brick and mortar space, is pleased to announce the successful launch of its first “Film Bubble” for a major motion picture (“MMP1”) that is scheduled to commence filming in January 2021. The name of the film and the starring actors will remain confidential until the commencement of filming. The launch of the Film Bubble for MMP1 is the result of a partnership agreement with Draganfly Inc (DFLY:CSE). Draganfly’s Safe Set Solutions for the global film and TV production industry is a ground-based technology that uses symptom pre-screening, elevated body temperature measurement, and social distancing digital display to help ensure that everybody on the set is safe. Loop Insights CEO Rob Anson stated, “The addition of Dragonfly’s Safe Set Solutions to our Venue Bubble Platform creates an instant and powerful Film Bubble solution for an industry that has suffered catastrophic losses in 2020 and can’t afford to stay shut down for a minute longer. We are extremely proud to have jointly delivered a solution to the film industry that will allow them to safely get their crews, actors, and supporting infrastructure back to work and generating prosperity, the ripple effects of which reverberate around the world.” Draganfly CEO Cameron Chell stated, “Partnering with Loop Insights to combine our respective technologies into Loop’s Venue Bubble solution is a powerful and significant step to help all industries and most immediately Hollywood and the global film industry safely ramp up production. Film industry investors, insurance companies, unions, and guilds are all seeking this type of solution to keep workers safe and protect their investments.” FILM AND TV STUDIOS SEEK FAST AND RELIABLE TESTING SOLUTIONS TO RESUME SAFE OPERATIONS AND MITIGATE BILLIONS IN LOSSES Total earnings at the North American box office in 2019 amounted to $USD 11.32 billion according to Statista.com. In January 2020, the U.S. motion picture and sound recording industry employed over 456 thousand people, with several hundred thousand more in Canada, the U.K., and around the world. As a result of production closures and cinema shutdowns related to COVID-19, the majority of the industry's revenues and jobs have been temporarily lost and are now at significant risk of long-term damage if the industry is unable to find solutions that can provide for the safe resumption of operations. Specifically, the global entertainment industry is projected to lose a staggering $160 billion of growth over the next five years, according to research firm Ampere Analysis. On November 2nd, AMC Theatres announced a 91% drop in revenues during the most recent earnings period, with losses hitting $906 million in just this quarter. LOOP AND DRAGANFLY FILM BUBBLE POSITIONED TO DELIVER INDUSTRY-LEADING SOLUTION Over the past several months, Loop Insights has successfully created, launched, and executed its Venue Bubble solution. Specifically, on December 1st, Loop announced Achieving 100% Success in Delivering The First-Ever Fully Integrated “Venue Bubble” in Live Environments at NCAA College Basketball Tournaments. In that press release, Loop CEO Rob Anson stated: “With the whole world watching, including professional sports leagues and teams, college sports leagues and teams, world-renown venues and hospitality companies, Loop hit it out of the park and provided the world with the empirical data necessary to demonstrate our bubble solution is nothing short of world-class.” Draganfly’s Vital Intelligence technology utilizes regular cameras to read vital signs such as Heart Rate, Respiratory Rate, and Sp02. The technology can help screen for infectious conditions, including COVID-19. The technology has been deployed on Drones and in Kiosks, along with an initial mobile API that has been implemented with several pilot customers. Loop CEO Rob Anson added, “The film industry has been an obvious major opportunity for our Venue Bubble solution and this first Film Bubble will provide a great showcase for our film industry solution, as well as, additional opportunities for travel, venue, and various healthcare applications we have been working on.” This Press Release Is Available On The Loop Insights Verified Forum On AGORACOM For Shareholder Discussion And Management Engagement https://agoracom.com/iLoopInsights/forums/discussion About Draganfly Draganfly Inc. (CSE: DFLY; OTCQB: DFLYF; FSE: 3U8) is the creator of quality, cutting-edge and software and systems that revolutionize the way organizations can do business and service their stakeholders. Recognized as being at the forefront of technology for over 22 years, Draganfly is an award-winning, industry-leading manufacturer and technology developer serving the public safety, agriculture, industrial inspections, security, and mapping and surveying markets. Draganfly is a company driven by passion, ingenuity, and the need to provide efficient solutions and first-class services to its customers around the world with the goal of saving time, money, and lives. About Loop Insights Loop Insights Inc. is a Vancouver-based Internet of Things (“IoT”) technology company that delivers transformative artificial intelligence (“AI”) automated marketing, contact tracing, and contactless solutions to the brick and mortar space. Its unique IoT device, Fobi, enables data connectivity across online and on-premise platforms to provide real-time, detailed insights and automated, personalized engagement. Its ability to integrate seamlessly into existing infrastructure, and customize campaigns according to each vertical, creates a highly scalable solution for its prospective global clients that span industries. Loop Insights operates in the telecom, casino gaming, sports and entertainment, hospitality, and retail industries, in Canada, the US, the UK, Latin America, Australia, Japan, and Indonesia. Loop’s products and services are backed by Amazon’s Partner Network. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/loop-insights-expands-venue-bubble-110000376.html
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
Disclaimer: This in no way is intended to represent CCP and or CSM members. It is clearly a shit post and probably not a very good one at that. Please don't ban me CCP. CSM 14 3 Mar 2020 There was a tense feeling in the air as the room was being filled for the CSM leadership AMA. This one had all the major decision makers from CCP/PA and the CSM knew this was a meeting that would be the most important of the summit. CCP Hellmar starts the meeting off with a round of introductions and ends with a small prepared speech. CSM 14, As your well aware Eve online is not doing well in the post blackout stages. We have consistently lost PCU and DCU numbers for the last several years and it seems like PA is looking to minimize the losses. We are going to be relying on you guys to help us transition to a state in which we can all win eve finally. I know this may come as a shock to you, but after PA finally made it through the new tutorial they have decided that we can not be trusted to make another game. All they kept talking about was how bad the UI is, what is this default overview, why do I need to have a 3rd party app/website for everything in this game, why does TiDi suck and finally the dreaded question of why does the rorqual have excavators. As you and most of the rest of the eve players know, CCP doesn’t play eve. We were completely unprepared to answer questions about the actual game play. Of course I tried to segue the conversation to Planetary Interaction but they were uninterested in the amount of button clicks it took. We also tried to discuss PVE but they kept saying they don’t want to stare at red crosses all day. Alas, after 20 minutes of fumbling through ship balance questions like why is the munnin still the meta ship, why do T2 BS cost as much as a dread but aren’t worth it, why certain ships aren’t flown while others are over used, and the normal ramblings that Eve Online players constantly complain about, they found out our biggest weakness. That we don’t actually know what we are doing. We even used the standard POS Code excuse, I mean eve players have always bought it. So it is with my largest regret (and profit) that I must inform you that we will be looking to transition eve online to eve offline (please go outside you fucking neckbeards) in the near future. I’m sure you guys have tons of questions and we have absolutely zero answers so let’s get this AMA started. Obviously shocked by this statement the CSM has been left speechless, except one. CSM Omeca Gold starts audibly regurgitating stats about supers dying in delve and how the small gang communities can see Eve through. Of course, other CSM members at the table are feverishly checking RMT prices of plex. The multidollar empire must survive. While the last of them just looked on in utter disbelief. After a few short minutes, the one true eve online hero raises his voice. Vily: What if we start a nullbloc war? CCP Hellmar: We have specifically made this game into empire building and a friendship machine. I mean look 3 timers for a structure and a damage cap, it’s pretty clear what we were doing. We are not looking to destroy the empires and the friendships we have made. I mean just look at me for instance I have 400 million green friends from this game and I would like to keep them. Vily: No, I’m serious. What if Test joins up with PL and goes after goons? Aryth and Merkelchen in unison: Yes, that will drive plex prices up. We can even sound the horn of Goondoor and bring old players back from the dead. That will save our precious multidollar empire. Gobbins: I don’t know Vily, I’ll reach out to PL but we all know those guys won eve a long time ago. It will be like waking a sleeping paper tiger with a steak. They could eat the steak or they could eat you. Sort Dragon: I say we just let the game die. It’s had a good run and I’m tired of structure bashes in the AUTZ because everyone time zone tanks. Vily: Well sort, your opinion is as irrelevant as your alliance. Guess I fuck better than you fight wars. Omeca Gold: Can you imagine how many supers will die in delve? It will be glorious. Vily: Omeca why is it always about supers dying in delve with you? Anyway, we need a badass name for the PL, Test, PH, Frat, NC. Coalition. Also, we need an amazing name for this war. We need something that screams to all eve players, this is the war of a life time. This is the war to end all wars, an extermination, a hell war. Merkelchen: We also need a reason. Exookiz: Let’s start off with the coalition name. I was thinking Pandemic Please Ignore. Dunk Dinkle: That hits a little close to home for us Americans. Vily: Yeah Dunk your probably right. CCP Hellmar, are you even paying attention. Hellmar: Umm yeah, sorry I was just showing Pearl Abyss Planetary Interaction steps. They don’t seem to understand how enjoyable it is. Vily: We are trying to come up with a name for our coalition. Got anything useful to add? Hellmar: How about .....Pearl...Abyss......Planetary... Interaction. That will show them how awesome PI is and how all of Eve loves how many times you have to click the same damn planet. We can call it P.A.P.I. For short. Vily: We can leave it on the drawing board and see what everyone else comes up with. Anyone else? Aryth: You guys can sort that out later, what are we going to call this war. I mean the casino war didn’t ring true to a lot of eve, so we need to pick a good name. Steve Ronuken: How about The New Eden Armageddon? Both because it represents what happens if this doesn’t work, but also because if all the bees die it will be an Armageddon. Innominate: Just got off the phone with Mittens. He said the wars on but the name is WWB because there has never been a WWB before. Vily: Alright look that’s a terrible name Innominate We can agree to disagree about the war name and coalition name for now. I just talked to PGL and Creecher. PGL just said: We BETTER have a sub cap fight too. Aryth: And Creecher? Vily: He said: I’M GOING TO CUM. Vily: Now what about a public reason. Dunk: Vily, blame it on goons for dropping on us from a nip citadel. Legacy is getting super tired of that shit. Vily: You know what, we will just end the nip give goons plenty of time to get ready publicly and get this war started. Goons, how soon can you be ready? Aryth: We need time to replace our stockpiles. How about 3-4 months? Vily: Sounds great, July 4th? Aryth: Sure, great. Vily: Hellmar, hows that sound? Test is starting a massive war and we will save eve. You will have more players logging in than ever. Hellmar: Yeah, that sounds great. Sorry I was looking at the abyss stuff. We can push back the full scale invasion like we were planning on using to shut the servers off for a few months to see if this is going to work. Just got off the phone with PA. They said you have to be looking at record breaking fights by the end of 2020 or it’s over. Vily: 1DQ BY CHRISTMAS THEN BOYS!!! The exterminator has arrived. Edit: spelling issue.
DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either. Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is. For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post. The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though. I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job. The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half. Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps. At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50. I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog. Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price. Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other. One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain. Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going. Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
Skill-Based Slot Machines: What Are They and How They Work?
For decades, spinning the reels of slot machines - whether at land-based or online casinos - has been reduced to pure luck and, apparently, no skill whatsoever. Players have been at RNG's mercy to either win or lose, which for most was both exciting and somewhat rewarding. However, new generations have started changing the face of gambling, slots in particular. Moving away from luck as a deciding factor of their wins, these generations have started asking for games that put their skills, reasoning, and capacities to test while still being fun – and that's how skill-based slots arouse.
What Are Skill-Based Slots?
Skill based slot machines are the newer breed of slots designed for everyone who would rather trust their skill over their luck, while still having fun - at least that’s how they are advertised. The outcome of skill-based slots should be based on the player's ability to play the game rather than how lucky they are. Skill slot machines also allow operators, game developers, and suppliers to design variable payback based on a comprehensive variety of identifiers.
The outcome of skill-based slots should be based on the player's ability to play the game rather than how lucky they are.
While regular slots' winnings involve a lot of player's luck and hardly any skill, skill slots are supposed to be predominantly skill, factor-wise. With skill-based slots, players start the game knowing that they will have a material effect on the outcome, i.e. how much money they can win, with better players getting rewarded with higher payback. Essentially, in answering what are skill machines, it is safe to say that they are games which resemble video poker or blackjack, as they give the player a chance to boost their profits solely with skill.
How Does a Skill-Based Slot Machine Work?
In comparison with how regular slot machines work, it is kind of difficult to give a definite observation on the matter as, basically, they operate the same way. Unlike regular slot machines, casino skill games feature bonus rounds that require skill to win. Also, some of these games don't necessarily require playing the skill-based round; instead, they offer the option of choosing between free spins and an interactive bonus.
How Slot Machine Skill Games Work?
Say you are playing a slot with a racing theme; this is how you would go about it:
When the bonus room is triggered, you choose the skill-based bonus
You race against other cars
The size of your payout gets determined by your finish
Skill based slot machines particularly stand out due to their unique bonuses.
What is the Difference Between Regular and Skill Based Slots?
Skill based video games, i.e. skill-based slots, are different from regular slot machines because they feature bonus rounds which include a high degree of skill. While the base mechanisms are the same for both, skill-based slots require some skill if the player is looking to score.
While the base mechanisms are the same for both, skill-based slots require some skill if the player is looking to score.
Regular slot machines work in a way that the player places a bet and spins the reels; then, the RNG (random number generator) delivers a combination, showing the results on the reels. Essentially, it is the RNG that determines the spin's fate. With traditional slots, players have almost no say in the outcome – they only decide the amount they'll bet and when they'll start/stop playing.
How Much is Actually Skill and How Much Pure Luck?
When we speak of skill-based gaming, it's safe to say that both are included, with the difference that, unlike traditional slots, skill-based slots do include competence.
What is the Difference Between Arcade Slot Machines and Skill Based Slots?
The younger generations don't remember it – but arcade games were the thing in gaming. New-age developers have decided to use the old trend, revamp it, and make it the basis of the majority of skill-based slot machines. The reason for this is, predominantly, millennial preferences. Millennials are not interested in luck deciding the course of their actions but are known to believe their own competence and rely on it. As skill-based slots haven't exactly grown in popularity in the past years, bonuses based on arcade games could be the best way to test if skill based gaming will become the new "it" of slots gambling.
Can You Make Money Playing Skill Based Slot Games?
Skill-based slots don't come with guaranteed profits despite the fact that your skills can result in earning more money. Why? When it comes to this type of games, the truth is - you won't raise RTP enough to guarantee winnings even if you're an expert at the bonus round. While players are given the option to include their skill in the whole concept of playing, these games are still programmed to give the house advantage over a player.
The Case of PA Skill Machines (Pennsylvania Skill Machines)
Pennsylvania Skill machines are the games you see at convenience stores, at bowling alleys, local pubs, and virtually all other fun-games-and-entertainment places. These games are allowed for 18-year-olds, while casino slot machines are strictly for those who are 21 years old, or older. Pennsylvania skill games are produced by Pace-O-Matic (POM or Pace O Matic), distributed by Williamsport, PA, -based-Miele Manufacturing. There are several games on offer:
A hypothetically unlockable bonus session
A tic-tac-toe-style puzzle
A "follow me" coloured dot-matching second phase of gameplay
If a player plays the Pace-O-Matic game successfully, they win a total of 105% of the original amount spent to play. Throughout the years, there have been talks whether the machines developed under the name "Pennsylvania Skill" should be considered regular slot machines or games of skill specifically. In the most recent ruling, it was announced that "video game machines manufactured and distributed by the POM under the name "Pennsylvania Skill" are considered slot machines under Pennsylvania law. However, Judge Patricia McCullough did not state that POM was in violation of the Gaming Act."
Currently, Pennsylvanian skill machines are considered legal.
But where does that leave things? Are Pennsylvania skill machines legal? Currently, they are considered legal. However, some people argue that the skill aspect is an illusion designed with the idea of floating Pennsylvania gambling laws. The same people, additionally, claim that a player can get lucky on both a regular slot machine and a skill-based one, and win – but that it would be luck in both cases, though.
Are Skill Slots the Future of the Slot Machine Industry?
Discussing whether skill slots are the future of the slot machine industry has to come with a degree of uncertainty as there are still plenty of unregulated and undefined things in this domain. While skill-based gaming sounds like a great idea on paper, the reality is different. Yes, skill-based slots give players the ability to decide their own gambling luck (in a way), but - skill alone doesn't always translate into success.
Skill-based slots give players the ability to decide their own gambling luck (in a way), but - skill alone doesn't always translate into success.
The optimum is that, based on how things are now, the future of slots looks close to placing an emphasis on social gaming (e.g. Angry Birds, Candy Crush, and Plants vs. Zombies, etc.) and console/computer games. Still, all further changes and upgrades remain to be seen.
Conclusion
Skill-based slots are a mixed bag of elements different to standard slots, but also a somewhat deceiving game as it sounds like it's giving players more power of the outcome than it actually does. Players are potentially able to influence 5% of the RTP through their abilities, but that is pretty much it. Skill slots differ from casino terminals in a way that they include some skill, the accent on "some". Skill slot machines don't actually give players a true chance to overcome the house edge, but that doesn't mean you can't have all the fun in the world just playing!
Golden Nugget (Atlantic City) Commercial With Fake Million Dollar Check
There is this relatively recent commercial that plays constantly on News 12 New Jersey for the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City, NJ. It probably plays in PA and NY as well and is for online gambling (New Jersey allows it, but you technically have to be physically in the state). The owner is on a virtual Zoom call (evidently recorded during COVID-19) and is announcing in an almost passive aggressive and mocking tone, to paraphrase, that "I hate to give up a million dollars, but I am so happy that a long time customer is getting this". He then "hands" over a fake million dollar check to a very bloated but clearly content gambler. When you see this guy's tone and demeanor, especially his fake and nearly sarcastic "I am so happy", he comes across as almost threatening and menacing, like he is Robert Deniro in "Casino", wagging his finger and smirking while implying, "You mutha-####, you got me dis time, enjoy it while it lasts, you fat bastard." I do not know what viewers are supposed to take away from the commercial. A guy who is a "long time" gambler, who sort of looks it, too, "just" won a million dollars. The guy probably lost close to as much money as "a long time" gambler. The owner clearly tries to vocally emphasize that he is happy that a "long time customer" won, implying that some schmo who wins on his first try will clearly tick off the owner. He is almost saying, "I want the habitual gamblers to come here, and if they happen to win, I will be ok with it just once, but don't push your damn luck." When he says he is "so happy", he is clearly anything but happy based on the tone of his voice. What is odd is that with a commercial you get many takes to get it right. This looks like it was done on one take and the guy was doing a bad job hiding his displeasure. I understand that Golden Nugget probably has many "million dollar winners" and the guy isn't going to cry about that every time someone happens to win. But he really does come across as if he is in emotionally retching pain telling the guy he's getting a million dollars. I have also read that entrepreneurs are extremely thrifty and many will actually bemoan the loss of even small amounts. In any case, the commercial does not present anything novel or interesting about the casino, while really showing more about the owner, who comes off as bitter and even angry. Maybe they were trying to show a "personal side" to the owner? Maybe he was aiming to come across as a "buddy" to gamblers who is "in it for them". But that is clearly not what came across. Had the owner wanted to appeal to (1) the public at large or (2) long time gamblers more specifically, he could have done the same thing but avoided the unnecessary commentary where he says "I am so [effin] happy". But his face, tone, and demeanor all say "I am so unhappy". A lot of these people don't realize that people are not stupid and they can tell when they are being told a lie. Narcissists, in general, are bad at realizing that people can see their lies through them, because they think that people buy into all of their b.s. I am not sure if the guy is a narcissist or not but he must have thought, looking at the finished product, that "Damn, that looked good", which clearly it did not.
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The three most played solitaire card games in the world
WHICH GAMES ARE THEY? The main reason that traditional playing cards first spread across the world is due to their primary use: for playing card games. But you don't need others to play card games, courtesy of solitaire card games. These have existed for decades, going back as far as the 19th century. But there's no doubt that the arrival of the personal computer into office spaces and homes has had an enormous impact in introducing these classic games of patience to the masses, and in popularizing them. Arguably the single biggest reason for this is Microsoft. Microsoft first began packaging a simple version of Klondike Solitaire with their operating systems with Windows 3.0, which was the third major release of Microsoft Windows, and came out in 1990. At the time, desktop computers had only just become a staple in homes and work-places. Part of the rationale for including a solitaire card game was to assist new users in learning how to use a mouse, and to help them become familiar with features like dragging and dropping, and the overall graphical interface of a personal computer. As Microsoft continued delivering new versions of their Windows operating system in later years, a couple of other solitaire card games were added, notably Spider and FreeCell. This development single-handedly revolutionized office-culture around the world. It's a little known fact, but sources within Microsoft have stated that Solitaire is in fact the most used software program in the entire Microsoft family, even ahead of programs like Word and Excel. At the time, it even led to debates about whether introducing computers into the workplace would actually decrease productivity, due to real concerns that Microsoft Solitaire was leading to many hours of time wasted by employees. https://preview.redd.it/yw9nk8tvdmc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=338bc8b84aaac968213494c002299ea9152872f3 What accounts for this tremendous success? First of all, digitizing what was already a popular game meant that it removed the practicalities and constraints involved in using a physical deck of cards. By eliminating the hassles of shuffling, dealing, and physically moving cards, and taking away the requirement for a reasonable amount of table space, all the book-keeping and tedious elements of the game were instantly eliminated. Now solitaire card games could be played much more quickly and easily. Software versions also created new opportunities for the game that didn't previously exist. Digital implementations made it possible to record percentages of wins, best times, and win streaks, all of which give additional incentives to return to the game. They also made possible forms of the game that - for logistical reasons - would be difficult or impossible to play in real life with a physical deck. Digital versions of solitaire were also easier to learn, given the enforced rules, automated layouts, and instructional tutorials that typically accompanied them. And of course, solitaire has an addictive quality about it, given the inherent challenge of trying to win from a deal. Being able to easily and quickly play a game of digital solitaire makes it a highly attractive time-filler. Despite the advent of flashier and more impressive games, people keep returning to the simplicity of dragging cards around for a quick five or ten minute fix of Solitaire. But this also explains how the three most played solitaire card games in the world accomplished this status. As Microsoft Windows was slowly conquering the world and asserting its monopoly on the global market of operating systems and personal computers, their versions of solitaire were the ones that became firmly established into homes and offices. So we have Microsoft to thank for making Klondike the solitaire game that nearly all of us are familiar with. For many people, this is the game that they identify "Solitaire" with. With Microsoft adding Spider and FreeCell in later years, these two games were quickly adopted and became beloved by solitaire fans as well, causing them to leapfrog many other classic solitaire games in popularity, and make them the most commonly played versions of solitaire behind the evergreen Klondike. With the release of Windows 8 in 2012, this trilogy of titles was rebranded under the name "Microsoft Solitaire Collection", as part of an ad-supported freemium package that also included two new solitaire additions: Pyramid and TriPeaks. While there are many other classic solitaire games that exist and are played around the world, in terms of the sheer number of games played, Microsoft's holy trinity of Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell unquestionably reigns supreme. As proof of its success, Microsoft Solitaire was inducted into the World Video Game Hall of Fame in 2019, alongside other greats like Doom, Donkey Kong, Tetris, Super Mario Kart, World of Warcraft, and The Legend of Zelda. To get there, it had to meet criteria that included being widely known and remembered, having enduring popularity, and not only influencing other games but culture in general. It's estimated that it has been installed on over a billion devices, localized in 65 different languages, and is considered to be instrumental in paving the way for the growth of the casual game market. https://preview.redd.it/x2473u9ydmc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=059922b3200f4e0d679ab3b8ed61ebc623a3857a Of course today there are many more ways to enjoy these popular solitaire greats. Besides apps for your mobile device, all you need is a web browser, and sites like Solitaired.com enable you to play them for free online wherever you are in the world, as long as you have an internet connection. Besides dragging and dropping cards with the click of a mouse on your personal home or office computer, touch screens have only helped to increase the number of ways you can play solitaire, especially on mobile devices. So let's take a closer look at the three most popular solitaire card games. KLONDIKE Overview: Klondike is the solitaire game most of us will be familiar with from our personal computer, or that we've seen bored staff playing in the office. It's the quintessential solitaire card game that everybody should at least try once, and is the game most people have in mind when they think of "solitaire". Its name has its origin in the late nineteenth century gold rush in the Klondike part of the Canadian Yukon, where prospectors would play the game in order to help pass the time. It sometimes goes under other names like Canfield (in the UK), although this latter name is technically incorrect, and actually refers to a different solitaire game. Game-play: Using a single deck, the aim is to arrange all 13 cards of each suit in a complete sequence from Ace through King. These sequences begin with the Ace as the foundation and build upwards, hence games like this are typically described as builder type solitaire games. Cards are placed in an area called the tableau, and the initial deal involves laying out seven piles, ranging from 1 to 7 cards on each, and with only the top card of each pile turned face up. These cards can then be arranged within the tableau by building downwards in alternating colours, and moved between columns to in order to access other cards. Only a King or column built down on a King can be transferred to a free space in the tableau. Unlike an open game where all the cards are visible and face-up from the start of the game, Klondike is an example of a closed game, because not all the cards are known, and slowly become revealed as you make them available. Variations: The most common way of using the stock is to deal three cards at a time, but many people also play with an alternative rule in which you deal one card at a time, which is sometimes called Las Vegas Solitaire, and even played as a gambling game in some casinos. This gives you access to many more cards and increases your chances of completing the game successfully. To make the game harder, you can also limit the amount of passes through the deck to just three times, or only once. My thoughts: Depending on which variation you're playing with and how many redeals you allow, a skilled player should be able to win standard game of Klondike nearly half of the time. It is very satisfying to finish a game and get all the cards onto the foundation, but be warned, because it's also very addictive! Once you're familiar with how the game works, you can polish off an entire game in as little as five minutes, making it an ideal choice for a casual game to keep returning to. It's also a game you can get better at, and for some excellent suggestions on improving your strategy, check out the article 7 Strategies to Win Solitaire. https://preview.redd.it/kqy0hgm6emc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42a61300151e622f01739680d0cd37c9d5c6ba3e Related games: If you want an easier Klondike style game that you should be able to win nine times out of ten, try Westcliff, which has ten columns; or Thumb and Pouch. There's also the easier two deck version of Klondike called Double Klondike, as well as Gargantua and Harp; while the two deck game Lady Jane is even easier yet, and you should be able to win 99% of the time. If you enjoy Klondike and want to try similar games, variations worth trying include Agnes Bernauer and Agnes Sorel. Easthaven adds a tricky Spider-like method of dealing the stock, while Blind Alleys and the closely related Pas Seul use a 6x3 tableau. Many other Klondike-inspired builder games exist which change more significant things about the game-play. One of the more popular ones is Yukon, in which the entire deck is dealt at the outset, and where you can move columns of cards even if the cards being moved aren't in sequence. This gives you easier access to cards, but the columns consist of more cards to begin with. Two players: For a version of Klondike that enables you to play competitively with another player using two decks of cards, take a look at Double Solitaire. Players have their own deck and tableau, and the aim is to be the first to play all your cards to eight foundations piles which are shared. As well as turn-based play, this can also be turned into a real-time race game of frenzied simultaneous solitaire. SPIDER Overview: One of the two games that lurks most closely in Klondike's shadow is Spider. Along with FreeCell, it has risen into prominence courtesy of Microsoft Windows, and chances are good that you've seen a version of it on your home computer along with other common games like Chess, Minesweeper, Hearts, and Spades. It is said to be a favourite of president Franklin D. Roosevelt. Many consider it to be the best solitaire game since it gives a lot of room to overcome the luck of the draw by skillful play, and comes with a good chance of winning the game. According to Gregory Trefry's Casual Game Design, by 2005 it had outstripped Klondike and become the most played game on computers that had Microsoft Windows, largely due the increased challenge it offers over the more luck-based Klondike. Game-play: A game of Spider uses two decks of cards, and the game starts after dealing out 54 cards out in a tableau of ten piles. Like Klondike, the aim is to get cards of the same suit in order from Ace through King, but in this case there are no foundations. Columns of cards remain in the tableau until you line up a whole column of a suit in order, descending from King down through Ace, at which point they are removed from the game. Cards can be moved within the tableau in a somewhat similar fashion to Klondike, but whenever you need fresh cards, the 50 cards remaining in the stock are dealt out 10 at a time across the entire tableau. Variations: In the standard form of the game, which is the hardest way to play, you play with all four suits, and while descending columns of alternating colours can be built, you can only move a stack if they are all of the same suit. This is generally considered the more Advanced form of the game, while an Intermediate form of Spider uses two suits and makes the gameplay easier by only using Spades and Hearts. The one suit game only uses cards from a single suit, and can be considered the beginner version, and serve as an excellent introduction to Spider. Officially all spaces in the tableau must be filled before dealing from the stock, but a more relaxed form of the game is possible by removing this requirement. My thoughts: Unlike Klondike, in Spider all the building happens within the tableau, so that immediately gives it a different feel. Winning Spider, especially in its standard form, can prove quite a challenge. But it's also one of the best solitaire games in view of the analysis and skill it allows for. New players should begin with one suit Spider, and you can always progress to the more difficult and strategic versions later. Single suit Spider is easily winnable most of the time, and is a more relaxing way to play. But even an easier game of Spider will take two or three times as long as a game of Klondike. While taking longer to play, it gives more room for skill and thoughtful play, and comes with the reward of increased chances of completing the game successfully. Microsoft's versions of Spider incorporated a scoring system, so that players could use "undo" in order to discover hidden cards and use this to determine their choices, but with a small point penalty. https://preview.redd.it/nmgcto1aemc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a80aea462f885f3f6ce642c9161c44d16e909ac5 Related games: Given the popularity and success of Spider, many other solitaire games exist that take over its basic concept, such as Mrs Mop, which has all the cards dealt face-up at the outset, and Beetle. Tarantula and Black Widow both make Spider easier by allowing you to move sequences in the tableau that are of the same colour (Tarantula), or of any colour (Black Widow). Spiderette is a single-deck version of Spider, and uses just seven columns Instead of ten, which are dealt out in a triangular style much like Klondike. Like the standard game, the way the cards are dealt can play a big role in whether or not a particular deal is solvable. Other common one-deck Spider games include Will o' the Wisp (which has a 7x3 tableau) and Simple Simon. Special mention should be made of the popular game Scorpion, which allows stacks to be moved within the tableau even if they aren't arranged in order, in the style of games like Yukon. It's not easy to win, however, and the Wasp variation increases your chances significantly by allowing any card or stack to be placed in an empty space in the tableau, not just Kings. Three Blind Mice is another favourite Scorpion variant, and uses a 10x5 tableau. FREECELL Overview: FreeCell emerged out of relative obscurity in 1995 as a result of its inclusion in Microsoft Windows 95. Even though it was created by Paul Alfille already as early as 1978, it was only when it was brought into the public eye with the help of Windows, that it quickly became an addictive pastime for many, and gained a loyal following. Just a few years later it was included along with Minesweeper in the chapter "Computer and Online Games" of the published version of Hoyle's Rules of Games. Fan websites were even created for it with information about the different deals, and strategies. Game-play: At the start of the game, a single deck is dealt face up into eight columns. There are four foundation piles, and as in most solitaire games, the goal is to build cards from each suit in ascending sequence from Ace through King. But in addition to these foundation piles, there are four storage cells that can be used to temporarily store a card from the bottom of any column, and that's where the real fun of FreeCell lies. Cards in the tableau are arranged down in alternating colours, and such sequences can be moved between columns - but only with the help of available cells - while a space created in the tableau can be filled with any card. Variations: FreeCell has inspired many variants and related game, which are too many to list. Several of these are true to the basic concept, but simply increase the number of cards in the game. For example, there is also a two-deck version called FreeCell Duplex. There is also a version with three decks and one with four decks. My thoughts: FreeCell has the distinction of being a solitaire card game that lends itself particularly well to a digital implementation. In the Windows version, each unique deal was assigned a different number, nearly all of which were solvable, and people could use this number to attempt the same deal as other players. The computer could also calculate which moves were possible and which were not. While later versions came with over a million unique deals, the original Microsoft FreeCell supported 32,000 numbered deals, dubbed as the "Microsoft 32,000". In the hey-day of FreeCell in the mid 1990s, a crowdsourced project assigned all these deals to different people, successfully completing all but one of them. Given that all the cards are visible at the start of the game, FreeCell is an open game and you have perfect information to work with from the outset, so there are no surprises awaiting you. Winning requires sheer skill, and there is very little luck. https://preview.redd.it/sdpdz9rcemc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ad1347423b051900ca92b1bacdc1e5f28ba1808 Related games: FreeCell has among its ancestors Eight Off and Baker's Game. In both games you build down in the same suit instead of in alternating colours. Eight Off gives players the added advantage of having more storage cells to use. It was the novel use of alternating colours that helped make FreeCell a big success, but these two predecessors are also very good. Given its tremendous popularity, FreeCell has inspired many other games of its kind, many with small twists to the setup or rules. One popular take on this style of the game include Art Cabral's excellent Seahaven Towers, which has a different starting layout. Also highly recommended is David Parlett's Penguin, which has seven reserve cells, and gives you three of your starting foundation cards but buries the fourth one at the bottom of the first column in the tableau; this is the "penguin" that you must free. CONCLUSION The above three solitaire games can all be described as builder-type games, and there are many other builder-type solitaire games that have been inspired by them or are related to them. The most popular ones besides the trilogy covered here include: Baker's Dozen, Beleaguered Castle, Canfield, Forty Thieves, La Belle Lucie (Lovely Lucy), Scorpion, and Yukon. Each of these games is in turn a representative of its own family of games that provides variations of the same theme. So it's worth trying each of these other titles too, to determine which ones you especially enjoy playing, and then exploring further within each family. But despite the tremendous diversity, these three reign supreme: Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell. Nearly everyone who has had a Microsoft Windows operating system on their computer at some point in their life will be familiar with one or all of these three solitaire games. This is particularly going to be true of those who were the early adopters of personal computers in homes and offices. Those who found themselves behind an office computer in the 1990s, lived in an era when video games weren't nearly as advanced, impressive, or varied as what they were today. This was a time when social media didn't yet exist, and when the world wide web consisted largely of text based websites that were accessed with slow dial up modems. In this environment, solitaire was the ideal companion for a lonely and boring day behind the computer, and a welcome distraction. The positive reception of Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell by this audience, has ensured that these three brands of solitaire will continue to have an enduring legacy, far beyond what even Microsoft ever imagined when first making them our friends. Almost 30 years on, these solitaire games have already stood the test of time, and will undoubtedly continue to be enjoyed by future generations. Where to play them?Head to Solitaired.com and try a game ofKlondike,Spider, orFreeCell! https://preview.redd.it/agaaitzfemc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dadb71579e685996511dd1e9bcf6f2cc0e768fcc Author's note: I first published this article at PlayingCardDeckshere.
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Getting wasted at your nightclub might lead to you waking up at the Epsilon HQ with a new shirt.
Your online character will receive the Epsilon robes and medallion after tipping the nightclub bathroom attendant $577.
A golden peyote was discovered in the game files, but nobody knew what it would do. Nobody could even find the damn thing. But sure enough, a week after it was noticed, it was found by rkRusty, and it turned him into Bigfoot. His replication instructions included how to find the golden peyote every Tuesday morning; what he didn’t know, was there are actually 7 golden peyotes plants, one for each day of the week (but they all turn you into the same version of Bigfoot). rkRusty noticed Rockstar updated the peyote scripts and left a note referring to him personally: “He was wrong to start his hunt on Tuesday.” Although, in hindsight it is a simple solution, at the time nobody bothered to experiment with taking the peyote plants every day of the week. 6 months later, the_stoned_ape decided he needed to restart the investigation, which led to NIC779 eating the golden peyote plants from Monday-Sunday, and finding the dead hunter. A few days later, Mozmachine noticed the Bigfoot had a growl, and when used, something growled back. This furry game of Marco Polo kept going around in circles until a few dedicated hunters dug through the files to figure out the outcome. The growls were actually coming from Teen Wolf, and if you beat him in a scrapyard showdown, you unlock him in Director Mode.
In the first content update for GTA Online, Rockstar added the Paradise van; the underwater UFO, and Bigfoot were hidden in the background of two of the paintjobs.
GTAV Release (September, 2013)
There is a cryptic mural at the top of Mt. Chiliad.
The ghost of Jolene Cranley-Evans haunts Mt. Gordo. You can see and hear her from the campsite at the foot of the mountain, or you can climb up and get a closer look.
How I earn a Full-time income online + Offers & More
So first start by saying I have "Real" Online work but it requires me to work about 30 mins a day... I work on this other stuff 8-10 hours a day and earn a full-time income alone from this stuff alone... I'm not including any affiliate signs ups I get when I say earning a living from this I highly advise you get a cheap Laptop to work on... You cant use your phone ( for the work stuff ) I would recommend something like a Thinkpad 430i, I'm pretty sure I bought one for £85 as I needed a cheap laptop for something else and its been solid normally they come with dud batteries, You can find a replacement HERE Appen|non-ref ( I will get $25 if you work I think its 100 hours )
Payout Method - Payoneer
Minimum payment - $5
By far the best site in terms of pay for time, I highly recommend you sign up and apply for every project they have, I currently work 2 and from time to time they have one of task... You can get projects which pay $25-$30 an hour but most pay $14... You are paid monthly and you will normally agree to work 10 hours per week
They offer a lot of different Tasks some ranging from 0.04 to $3 per task Some can be completed Once or thousands of time - I highly Advise signing up for this site - Make sure you fill out your profile in full and make sure their emails are not going into your spam folder
The best way to make money on Clickworker is through UHRS - Once you have signed up, Click on Assessments on the top bar and take the test, This is the best way to earn on here. Some of the basic tasks without UHRS can also pay Decent sometimes.
By far (In my opinion) The best survey site in terms of consistent pay, Make sure your Profile is always at 100% ( I also always have a tab open with this so I can grab them right away)
Populus Live
Payout Method - Cheque
Minimum Payment - £50
They pay by check once you reach £50 and its sent monthly, Normally they pay between £1-£4, I normally get 2-4 surveys per day I would say
GG2U $1 Bonus | non-ref ( No Bonus ) - I will get 5% of what you earn
Payout Method - Paypal
Minimum Payout - $7
I do the $1 or $1.25 surveys
Timebucks(I think $1 bonus) | Non-Ref ( No Bonus ) - I will earn 15% of what you earn
Payout Method - Bitcoin, Transferwise + Others
Minimum Payout - $10, They pay every Thursday
I would normally do the Yoursurveys .75 surveys here but they pay $1 on GG2U But I have had good luck with Revenuewall and Flapbuck surveys and some can pay pretty decent... The site looks terrible and they used to have Paypal but removed it... I use this only when I have nothing else to do... One of the things, I have had the most luck on here in terms of not getting DQ ( This was one of the first I started using )
Panelbase - Sign up HERE ( Quidco £10 Bonus )| Non- Ref ( No Bonus ) - Quidco will pay you £0.80p to sign up and if you sign up through my link you will also get a £10 bonus on Quidco when you reach £5 cashback Some decent surveys on here, I normally check and do them when they are over £1 I mainly focus my time on Appen, If there is no work on Appen then I will see if there are tasks on Neevo if not then I move to the other sites... I only use the lower-paying survey sites when I have nothing else to do I still do have something that guaranteed you money regardless, So even if I have a slow do saying this there is no pressure because my other work is there. This past week happen has been slow for me but I was able to smash out thousands of tasks on Neevo which made that up ----- Here is also some good offers on a few different sites, They should be the highest paying for that offer TopCashBack - REF (£5 BONUS ) | NON-REF( NO BONUS) You will get the bonus once you reach £10 payable cashback Once you have signed up, here are the offers They also have a £15 Cashback on a Just Eat order of £15, Worth it for some free food Betfair Poker - £50 Cashback for signing up and playing £10 of poker | £10 Spend GiffGaff - £10 Cashback - Order and activate a new sim, The Cheapest package is £6 SearchLoto - £0.82 - Create your account, Make 25 Searched, and use Free Ticket. Experian - £3 - Sign up for a new account Graze - £2.47, Order your first box then cancel when it arrives Totally Money - £2.10 - Make an account and get a free credit report Tastecard - £3.30 - Free 2 Months trial Booking buddy - 2p ( Can do 3x per day ) - Make a search. Quidco - REF ( £10 Bonus ) | NON-REF ( NO BONUS ) Bonus is once you reach £5 cashback Azimo - £25 Cashback - Make a Minimum Transfer of £151 ( Send the transfer to your other account ) Paddy Power Games £20 Cashback - Deposit and wager £10 Panelbase - £0.80p - Create an account and do a survey ( I highly recommend using this site ) Pick My Postcode - £.80p - Create an account. booking buddy - 2p ( Can do 3x per day ) - Make a search. ---- Swagbucks - REF ( Around £4 BONUS ) | NON-REF ( NO BONUS ) To get the £4 bonus you need to earn 300SB in your first month, Since the offers at the bottom I would do the two offers listed, Then make the rest up by doing 3/4 Surveys but other than this please do not waste your time on Swagbucks doing surveys, I only do them if to complete swago or if they are pretty high paying. AyeT- CyberGhost VPN Free Trial - 54SB Adgem - Norton VPN Free Trial - 63SB 100SB Bonus - Install the Swagbutton Rise of Kingdoms - 4000SB - Get to hall Level 17 Lottoland - 1300SB - Click the offer and it will take you to the sign-up and will cost £1 ( Make sure auto-renewal isn't on ) ----- GG2U - REF( I think you get $1 Bonus ) | NON-REF ( No $1 if there is a bonus ) William hill ( Find this under Gaming Offers ) - Deposit £10 and wager £10 - Around £27 Back Normally the Gala offers pay higher but none of them are available anywhere, Normally pay around £40, on TCB or Quidco but they have no offers right now for them --- Ysense - REF( Don't think there is a bonus |NON - REF Click Offers, Then Offertory Final Fantasy 100K Power - $10.16. I did this before and I spent £1 and completed really quickly, It was an XP reward I bought, It gave millions of Hero XP which gave enough power I highly advise you don't waste time on this site doing surveys ---- Lionbridge - Like happen but this is more strict and I also found Appen paid more for the Project I am on. Teamwork- Like Appen and Lionbridge, I have done some work for them in the past everything was fine and paid on time. Apple at Home Advisor - Work at home Advisor for Apple. Pretty sure they send you an iMac to work on tho I could be wrong Pretty sure Amazon has remote work also. If you google a company and then "Remote" or at home, It should let you see if they have work - I had these 3 on a list Its transcription work but Appen, Lionbridge, and Teamwork offer this and probably best going for them. Rev transcribeme GoTranscript ---- Sites/Apps that are legit + my thoughts on them Swagbucks ( Around £4 Bonus ) | non-ref ( No Bonus ) I only do offers on here but I always check other sites before doing them to see if better paying elsewhere and I do swago when it comes up - Do not do surveys unless they are offering a few £ as they normally DQ - Only do Offers, Don't waste your time on anything else Serpclix| non-ref You install the plugin and it pops up with a task to search for a website... I barely use it but I would say its worth using for some extra cash ( Some users say £10-£30 a month on here ) Branded Surveys| non-ref Had a few payouts, Too many DQ would avoid unless nothing else Life Points Had some decent paying surveys, But too many DQ.. I would personally avoid Qmee ( 50p Bonus ) | non-ref ( No Bonus ) In my opinion, it's not worth the time, I do probably 1 or 2 surveys per week and I only touch the ones 75p + unless they take to long... I don't think you should focus anytime on it unless you have nothing else. Ysense Don't waste your time, I listed an offer for it above other than them offers.. Don't bother, People only want sign-ups to this cause they pay like 15% of earnings and I think around £5 when someone reached a certain amount SliceThePie- Don't bother, Its clearly about 10p an hour HoneyGain ($5 Bonus I think ) | Non- Ref ( No Bonus ) It uses your unused internet in the background, it's perfectly safe personally for me I've not had much luck but it comes down to location and how many devices you are using 20Cogs ( £20 Bonus on cashout ) | Non-ref ( No Bonus ) This is legit but most offers do pay better elsewhere and you need to hit 20 confirmed cogs before they payout, I have done offers on here and have my 20cogs pending but make sure you always check other sites to make sure you are getting the most amount of profit... I mostly do offers on here that I have not seen anywhere else. PrizeRebel - Don't waste your time. Microworkers - Can pay decent if you can rattle off some fast task but - Its a pain to get paid, Customer service pretty much ignores you and a lot of the jobs and links are sketchy as hell --- I know nothing about this stuff but you can also teach English online and get paid for it. You might need an ESL certificate. The pay is pretty decent if you can get work If this is something you are interested in I highly advise you do some research for it because its decent work vipkid- Teach English to kids online, If you want to find more I would advise you to look through Reddit as a lot of users on here use this for work, There are more sites than just this that you can work for, I think they pay from $15-$25 per hour. QKid- Same as vipkid teaching English online- I think this pays up to $20 per hour gogokid- Teach English Online $14-25 per hour There will be more sites than this but these are the ones I know of. ---- Amazon FBA I don't recommend you bring crap in from china there is enough of that,,, My advise would start small, Start by Buying stock from Supermarkets or other online retailers this is called retail arbitrage and then sending that in but make sure you are allowed to sell in that category, also if your going down the video game route that you sell Used video games and older back catalog titles as these hold higher profit margins than new stock, Lego, Toys, etc are good things to keep an eye out for you can also look for this sort of stuff on the Facebook market place There is very little profit in new stock unless you can pick it up and most of the time you'd be selling at a loss because the big retailers can sell it for the price you buy it Use Amazons courier ( they use ups) it's like £5 to send in a 15KG Box Get the hang of it to figure out what works for YOU! Don't follow anyone on youtube and what they say to do... Of course, if you want to make serious money which you can do, You will need to get suppliers, etc but no one will tell you where to get these, and the ones found easily through google search will make you very little if any money using... Here is also some things I recommend using ( I use them or have used them ) Barcode Scanner ( I only use my PC so need scanner ) Barcode Scanner With Stand Epson XP-3100 FBA Labels Bags - I use a mixture of different one but these are fine for smaller things. You don't need to buy the best printer or anything like that these work perfectly fine... You only need that stuff if you're doing thousands of labels per day As I said before, Don't be scared to try this its actually pretty fun and can make good money just please people on youtube UK and US, Try it see what works for you Also Amazon handmade but I still think Facebook is a great way to start selling handmade stuff ( if its quality ) - Gambling First, I recommend you don't touch anything to do with this stuff if you have any mental health problems, feel lonely, etc this can ruin your life if you go off the deep end Matched Betting - You can make good money from this and I think everyone should do it, It's not complicated once you get the hang of it but don't use Profit Accumulator or the other one that charges £17 a month, in my opinion, it isn't worth it ... You could use something like Team Profit to get the hang of it and then take the £1 profit accumulator trial then get more info from there but cancel before the £17 month The more money you have to do this the more you're going to make, It can be pretty slow if you are starting with a low amount of money but when you're doing these, Make sure you check cashback sites or offerwalls to see if they will pay you for signing up People promote PA because they have a good affiliate program Gambling CPA/RS This is different and you need a website or social media platform, You would have deals with the casinos, Bookmakers, etc But the money, if you get it right, is absolutely ridiculous... This is why you see these guys on youtube spinning such high amount of cash on the casino, If you are good at building sites or have a boatload of cash to chuck at this You would post them and when people sign up through your link you could be on CPA ( Cost per Acquisition ) RS= Revenue share, So you would get % of a player losses or you could be on a hybrid This money is life-changing if you get it right but since there is so much cash it is not easy... These sites are spending 10s of thousands a month to be at the top search results. ---- Cashback Websites JoinHoney | non-ref - Saves you money by searching for coupon codes, I place a monthly order on a website and it saves me between 20-40 each time, Well worth installing when you shop online TopCashBack (£5 Bonus ) | nonref ( No Bonus ) £5 Bonus once you reach £10 payable cashback, I listed some good deals at the top of the post ( Check yourself for more on the site ) Also can save money when shopping online Quidco (£10 Bonus) |non-ref ( No bonus ) You get the £10 bonus once you reach £5 cashback, Same as top cashback... Some offers listed above and you can also get cashback shopping online -- My favorite Offer Xendpay (£10 Bonus | non-ref( No bonus ) Sign up and Verify your account, Make a transfer of £100 and you will get £10 free.. You can just transfer the money to yourself but you will need an account that takes euros as you need to send £ to euro - Before you sign up to an offer on this sub, Please check on cashback sites to see if they pay more than a ref link, Example is the Azimo link it has been posted on this sub on the past few days, You only get £10 from that but you will get £25 through Quidco + £10 bonus if you are new to the site There is also a scam that's posted a lot on Reddit, They claim to pay you $25 to sign up then $25 per person you sign up, This is a scam they go by a few different names sites all look the same with the same fake payouts I hope this helps someone out.
West Virginia Online Casino Finally Goes Live As DraftKings Launches
“With a surprise launch, West Virginia has just become the fourth US state with legal online casino gambling alongside New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. DraftKings was the first operator to go live with a WV online casino, announcing its app is now available for both iOS and Android devices in the state. News came in the form of a brief press release issued Wednesday afternoon. DraftKings Casino is also available as a standalone app in PA and NJ, as well as embedded into the DraftKings Sportsbook platform in all three states. Michigan online casinos will additionally go live either later this year or early in 2021, where DraftKings has a path to market under a tribal partnership.” https://www.onlinepokerreport.com/43397/west-virginia-online-casino-live-with-draftkings/
DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way. The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further. I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half. Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons. At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50. No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state. Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
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